High inflation print is the price that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to pay to nurse a fragile growth back, say economists. Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rose to a record high of 12.94 per cent in May, aided by low base effect, but also because of higher fuel and commodity prices. Retail inflation, too, surprised by rising to 6.30 per cent, while the core inflation, which is the non-food and non-fuel component, rose to an 83-month high of 6.55 per cent. These numbers are much above RBI's upper limit of 6 per cent inflation target, but there is very little that the RBI can do at this moment.
Domestic equity markets are in elite company. In May, Indian markets joined select developed markets (DMs) such as the US, UK and Germany to record new all-time highs. Among emerging markets (EMs), Brazil is the other market to have logged new highs this month. Asian peers such as South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand are currently between 2 per cent and 10 per cent below their previous highs made earlier this year. The domestic markets were among the worst-performing major global markets in April amid a lethal second-wave of covid-19 infections.
With India's market capitalisation surpassing the $3-trillion mark, stocks across the board are adding heft. The upper limit for qualifying as a mid-cap stock -under the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) definition for mutual fund reclassification - has hit an all-time high of $5.4 billion. In 2013, amid the taper tantrum sell-off, it had dropped to just $1 billion, shows an analysis done by ICICI Securities.
'Personally, I have reached that stage where I think material things can't give you any satisfaction.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) booked massive gains on its foreign currency sales and needed to provide much lesser for its reserves in 2020-21 (FY21), helping it to carve out a significant Rs 99,122-crore dividend for the government, revealed the RBI's annual report for FY21. By doing so, the central bank's risk buffers have reduced to the bare minimum, which may restrict some of RBI's scale of operations, and would likely hamper dividend payout for financial year 2021-22, said analysts. The annual accounts are for nine months ended March 31, 2021 since the RBI changed its accounting year from July-June to April-March from FY21.
The country's dash to a $3-trillion market cap is more a case of teamwork, than a few members doing most of the heavy lifting. Sample this: The share of top 100 companies to India's total market cap (BSE-listed companies' m-cap) is 67.3 per cent currently, less than what it has been when the nation hit previous milestones, such as $1 trillion, $1.5 trillion in 2007 or $2.5 trillion more recently in December 2020. In 2007, when India's m-cap topped the $1-trillion mark for the first time, the top 100 companies accounted for three-fourths of the total m-cap; at $1.5 trillion, the share was almost 80 per cent.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is precariously balancing two opposing objectives - maintaining easy financial condition in the domestic market, while ensuring external stability - and economists have started taking note. They say India is going through the classic trilemma of the 'Impossible Trinity'. The RBI cannot have an independent monetary policy (setting domestic interest rates) in an environment of an open capital account and flexible exchange rates. What is even more complicated for the central bank now is that financial market stability overlays all the other three objectives.
Thirteen companies have joined the Rs 1-trillion-plus market capitalisation club this year, so far. This even as the benchmark Sensex has gained less than 3 per cent on a year-to-date basis, underscoring the bullish undercurrent in the broader market. The trend shows a harsh second wave of Covid-19, subsequent lockdowns, and hit to the economic activity has made little dent into India Inc or shareholders' wealth. At the start of the year, there were 29 companies with a market value of more than Rs 1 trillion.
Theoretically, the currency with the public should expand in sync with the nominal income, which again moves in relation to the nominal growth rate of the economy. But the correlation breaks easily when other factors come into play, says Anup Roy.
In 2020-21, Indian firms offered to buy back shares worth Rs 39,295 crore, or 97% more than Rs 19,972 cr proposed in the previous financial year.
Covid-19, US yields, dollar to weigh on equity flows in the near term.
The 30-share bluechip index is rebalanced on a semi-annual basis with next rejig slated for June 18.
While the stocks met various other inclusion parameters, there were fears they may still get disqualified given the sharp run up in their stock prices.
Although such alerts are not compulsory for the banks, this may become the norm now if payments are missed even for a day.
New-generation private sector banks such as ICICI, HDFC, Axis, Kotak etcetera owe their existence to the recommendations of the first Narasimham Committee.
The listing day gain-to-loss ratio for FY21 was 71 per cent, the highest since FY17, when it was 85 per cent.
The sudden movement of the rupee - post the monetary policy - is not a reason to panic, said currency dealers. According to them, a correction was overdue for the rupee that remained the best performing currency in the region for well over a month. The rupee closed at 74.72 a dollar on Friday from its previous close of 74.60. It had dropped 1.52 per cent against the dollar on April 7 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its monetary policy, committing to buy Rs 1 trillion of bonds in the June quarter. A weak rupee goes well with the export narrative of the government, and is consistent with the RBI's intervention strategy that prevented an appreciation.
The finance ministry said the sharp inflows last fiscal were due to the government's policy initiatives and economic recovery.
'It won't help being complacent about the momentum and valuations of equities that currently exist.'
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